The Detroit Tiger's Top 10 Prospects (1-5)

Hey again everyone. Today I would like to do somewhat of a countdown of who I feel the current top 10 prospects in the Detroit Tiger's organization are.

*note: Now that the Minor League seasons are complete for the Tiger's teams, I will take into account what the players did this past season (2011) when ranking them.

1) Jacob Turner, RHP, 20 years old.

By now, everyone should have heard of this kid. He has had 3 starts in Detroit, with mixed (mostly bad) results. These major league experiences have done nothing to negate his potential or ceiling, however.

Turner, a Right-Handed Starting Pitcher, was drafted 9th overall by the Tigers in 2009 out of high school in Missouri. After a very successful season in 2010 at both the A and high-A levels of the minor leagues, Turner began this season at AA Erie.

He was very successful, despite what his win totals might say (don't pay attention to wins, they are a useless stat when determining pitcher value). He posted a 3.48 ERA in 113 2/3 IP spanning 17 starts at AA. He had a solid WHIP of 1.18, while posting nearly 1 strikeout per inning. He spent the final 2 months of the season between Detroit and AAA Toledo, with mixed results due to advanced competition and limited innings.

Turner is somewhat of a mix between Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. He is like Porcello in the sense that he loves to throw a 2-seam fastball that has sink at around 90-91 MPH, which produces a lot of ground balls when it is effective. He is more like Scherzer is the sense that he can gas up his fastball to the mid-90's while still maintaining some movement, to go along with a plus curveball and an average change up that has the potential to develop into a 3rd plus pitch.

ETA: Turner, in my opinion, will make the Tiger's rotation out of Spring Training in 2012, and have a very Porcello-like rookie season. 12-15 wins with a mid to high 3 ERA is a reasonable expectation, and remember, he is not yet 21 years old.

Prospect Ceiling: Very High. Potential front of the rotation starter down the road.

2) Nick Castellanos, 3B, 19 years old.

Castellanos, the Tiger's supplemental draft pick in the 2010 Draft, was an outstanding high school shortstop in the Miami area. Castellanos would have easily been a top 10-15 pick had it not been for his hard commitment to the University of Miami, as well as expected high salary demands. The Tigers took a chance on him, signed him, and then assigned him to A-level West Michigan for the 2011 season.

Castellanos started slowly, hitting under .200 in April, but rebounded to hit .312 on the season, with team highs in batting average, doubles (36), RBI (76), and OPS (.803). He combines a very quick, short stroke with excellent lower body drive and extremely fast hands to create a very well-balanced, strong swing; resulting in his plus extra base power, to go along with marginal home run power (7 total). He played shortstop in high school, but at 6'4", 200lbs and still filling out, he is much better suited to play 3rd base. He has great range from 3rd, along with a plus arm, but still learning the position lead to 23 errors. I expect him to continue to grow into the position, and be an above-average defender at 3rd in the majors. As for the bat, he needs to cut down on the strikeouts (130), but that's a problem very few prospects DON'T run into. He walks at a decent rate, and his batting average speaks to his raw ability to hit. He displayed plus extra-base power, and I expect him to maintain that along with additional home run power.

ETA: Castellanos will almost assuredly be assigned to High-A Lakeland out of Spring Training, with a possible mid-season promotion to Double-A Erie in 2012. Depending on how he performs, in particular with the bat, he should be ready for the majors by mid-2013, and ready to take over 3rd base full time by 2014.

Prospect Ceiling: Very High. I think he projects to be a perennial .300/15-20/80-100 producer in the majors, with an above-average glove at 3rd base, with the potential to move to a corner outfield spot if he keeps growing.

3) Drew Smyly, LHP, 22 years old.

Smyly was Detroit's 2nd round pick in 2011, from the University of Arkansas. A lefty, he is more of a control-style pitcher than a guy who will blow you away, but he uses his talents very effectively. Smyly was assigned to High-A Lakeland, where he performed very well, going 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA over 80 innings. A solid WHIP of 1.15 partnered with an excellent K:BB ration of nearly 4:1 to earn Smyly a promotion to Double A-Erie around mid-season. While at Erie, Smyly absolutely broke out, going 4-3 with a minuscule 1.18 ERA, to go again with a nearly 4:1 K:BB ration, both absolutely outstanding numbers.

With Smyly, we see an older prospect (22) than someone like Turner (20), but also a more polished prospect, particularly due to the fact that Smyly pitched at a big-time college baseball program. Smyly is more finesse than power, but as the numbers show, he uses his skills very effectively.

ETA: Smyly will probably start 2012 back in Double A Erie, but if he repeats the success he had there, he will almost assuredly be promoted to Triple A at the very least. I don't think it's out of the question to see him in Detroit as a spot-starter (like Turner this year) or as a long-relief man (like Wilk and Furbush were this season).

Prospect Ceiling: High. Smyly has a much lower ceiling than Turner, who projects to be a front of the rotation "ace" type starter. Smyly is more a swingman, with the potential to be (at the very highest) a #3 starter in a major league rotation, or perhaps an effective long-relief lefty in a bullpen somewhere. Either way, he will help the Tigers in some capacity.

4) Andy Oliver, LHP, 25 years old.

Many of you will know this name. Oliver, who has made 8 starts in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, was a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. Extremely raw, with excellent pure stuff, Oliver needs to learn how to "pitch" rather than "throw." Ever heard Jim Price refer to "the art of pitching with a power arm" when referring to Verlander? Well, Oliver has the power arm, he just hasn't the slightest idea about the art of pitching.

Oliver combines a mid-90's fastball that occasionally tops out at 97-98 with a nasty slider and developing change up to make him a very proficient strikeout pitcher. His issue is that he walks nearly as many as he strikes out, and thusly ends up with ridiculously high pitch counts. He reminds me a lot of Daniel Schlereth, in the sense that there are moments where he will throw a pitch that makes me say "wow, no human should be able to make a ball do that", and then promptly walks the next guy on 4 fastballs 3 feet out of the zone. Once Oliver learns the elusive art of pitching to combine with his power arm, he ceiling is tremendously high.

Oliver spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he had spurts of brilliance and spurts of pure maddening frustration, ending in a line of 8-12 with a 4.70 ERA over 147 innings. He had 143 strikeouts, which is nearly one per inning (duh), but also walked 80, which is horrendously high. Due to the elevated walks, his WHIP is notoriously high, and he gave up a lot of earned runs.

ETA: More or less, any time now. We've seen him already, and we're almost sure to see him again, the question is simply how effective will he be? I expect to see a Triple-A assignment in 2012, with his call-up to Detroit being determined by a combination of need of the big club with Oliver's effectiveness. Either way, I expect we will see him in some capacity in 2012 in Detroit.

Prospect Ceiling: High. If Oliver ever figures it out and is able to command his pitches effectively, he could be the left handed "2" to Justin Verlander's "A". His stuff is simply that good. If he doesn't figure it out, obviously the Tiger's don't need any more live arm lefties that can't throw strikes consistently (re: Schlereth, Daniel and Purcey, David). I could, however, see him as a very effective late innings reliever. A plus fastball and plus slider from the left side (Billy Wagner anyone?) could make Oliver very useful in the bullpen, again, with the caveat that he learns to throw strikes.

5) Casey Crosby, LHP, 23 years old.

Crosby is incredibly similar to Andy Oliver, except with maybe even better pure "stuff." Crosby, unlike Oliver, has dealt with a history of arm issues, but this season, except for a minor sore arm hiccup, he was essentially healthy all season. He spent the whole year a Double A Erie, going 9-7 with a 4.10 ERA over 132 innings. He struck out 121, walked 77, and had an elevated WHIP of over 1.60. See any similarities?

Crosby combines an incredibly live arm (has touched 99) with a plus curveball and a Jeremy Bonderman change up (meaning he's been "working on it" for years, but we never see it). His issue, like Oliver's, is walks. He probably has more upside than Oliver, in the sense that while Oliver is not at all polished AND wild, Crosby is simply wild. When he throws strikes, he dominates. That simple. When he is wild, he gets hit. Seems pretty simple right?

The Tigers are still very high on Crosby, and rightfully so. I made the potential Billy Wagner comparison with Oliver, but I feel like Crosby is closer to Wagner than Oliver is. Crosby, due to durability concerns, is much better suited for the bullpen in my opinion, while Oliver has the durability to be a started. Oliver also has an at least average 3rd pitch, essential to a major league started repertoire, while Crosby only has (albeit, dominant) 2. Crosby could be the back end of the bullpen, fire throwing lefty that all teams covet, again, IF he can learn to throw strikes with consistency.

ETA: Crosby will for sure be sent to Double A Erie again in 2012, and if he pitches well in the 1st half, stays healthy, and cuts down on his walks, he could see a promotion to Triple A. I don't expect to see him with the Tigers outside of a late-season bullpen tryout (September call up maybe) perhaps. Should he stay healthy through 2012 and improve upon his walks and tendency to leave the ball elevated, he could easily crack the Tiger's bullpen in 2013.

Prospect Ceiling: High. Crosby has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, similar to Oliver. However, I project him to be a late-innings bullpen pitcher, due to his durability concerns and lack of a 3rd pitch. Overall, if he learns to throw strikes, he could be what we all expected Daniel Schlereth to be.

6-10 will follow in a separate post.

Peace, Love, and Tiger's Baseball

Realignment in College Football

"Greed is good."

--Gordon Gekko

The above is a quote from Michael Douglas's character in the film "Wall Street." There are times when I wonder what role would Gordon Gekko play in conference realignment.

In short, the NCAA would probably make sure he wouldn't monopolize all, if not most, of the elite programs in college football in one conference.

In all seriousness, conference realignment has been a hot issue ever since Nebraska announced that they would join the Big Ten last year. Colorado and Utah followed suit by joining the new Pac-12. We also saw Boise State join the Mountain West, BYU become an independent, and TCU announced that they would join the Big East in 2012 (which makes absolutely no sense geographically). At this point, it appeared that the storm of realignment had finally blown over.

Wrong.

As the 2011 season drew closer, rumors began to swirl that the SEC was looking to add Texas A&M (and potentially a few more schools), the Pac-12 was looking into adding Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State, the Big Ten and the ACC both mulled adding schools, and the Big East and Big 12 looked destined to dissolve.

Now that the dust APPEARS to have settled (knock on wood), the only item in stone is that Texas A&M is headed to the SEC. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are leaving the Big East for the ACC, and the Pac-12 decided against further expansion.

This is NOT the end of realignment, folks. Below, I have listed each of the BCS conferences, what they have done in terms of realignment, and what they could end up doing.

ACC. What they've done: added Pittsburgh and Syracuse from the Big East. Expected to do: potentially add UConn and Rutgers.

Big 12. What they've done: Lost Texas A&M (and possibly Missouri) to the SEC. Expected to do: Dissolve. The days of the Big 12 look numbered, as commissioner Dan Beebe announced his plans to step down. Beebe was doing everything possible to build a wall around the conference, but news of his resignation means that his plan may have failed. If dissolving is in fact inevitable,  a potential merger with the Big East may be the only option.

Big East. What they've done: Lost Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC. Expected to do: If they don't dissolve, they could grow. East Carolina has applied for membership in the conference. In addition, Central Florida is a rumored candidate, along with Navy, Army, Air Force, and Notre Dame. Keep in mind that Notre Dame is a member for every sport except football. The aforementioned merger with the Big 12 is also an option.

Big Ten. What they've done: Sat back and watched. Expected to do: If they don't move, the best option may be to grab Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech to counter what the SEC plans to do. More on that later.

Pac-12. What they've done: Announced that they won't be expanding (for now). Expected to do: I'm not expecting commissioner Larry Scott to stick to his guns for a really long time, as their still could be plenty of fish in the sea. Stay tuned.

SEC. What they've done: Added Texas A&M and are possibly adding Missouri. Expected to do: Texas and Oklahoma have been rumored targets along with Virginia Tech and either Duke or North Carolina. This is another "wait and see" situation.

I think the three key players in the realignment race are ACC Commissioner John Swofford, Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, and SEC Commissioner Mike Slive. The real battle may be between Delany and Slive, as whoever ends up with Texas and Oklahoma will be the big winner. In conclusion, the realignment race is far from over.

The Case for JV

A lot of people lately are starting to (rightfully so) jump on the "Justin Verlander for MVP" bandwagon. I mean, come on, JV leads the world in Wins, ERA, WHIP, K's, IP, Pitches Thrown, WAR (for Pitchers), etc.

Surely, wins are a soft statistic, much like RBI for hitters, but we'll talk about that another day. But when you look at the important peripheral numbers, most importantly ERA, WHIP, and WAR, the numbers tend to speak for themselves.

JV's ERA (earned run average) is 2.36. That means he gives up under 2 1/2 runs PER 9 INNINGS!

His WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) is .90. That means JV is giving up less than 1 baserunner per inning. That is OBSCENeLY low.

My favorite statistic is that of WAR (wins above replacement), which measures how many wins a particular player has directly contributed to his team versus what a major league average player would have done. To further illustrate this, the baseline figure of this is zero. An average major leaguer has a 0 WAR, meaning he has directly contributed to zero wins and zero losses. Justin Verlander's WAR is 8.5. That means Justin Verlander is directly respsonsible for nearly 9 Tiger wins. Without him, the Tigers would be at best a .500 club.

Some of the supposed baseball elite in the media will not vote for Verlander, simply because he is a pitcher. They are of the opinion that since a starting pitcher only pitches 1/5 of a teams games, he doesn't deserve the award, that it should go to an everyday player like a Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Elsbury.

Well, lets think about this logically. Your everyday major league player, on average, gets about 550-600 at-bats in a season. That's barring injury, extended rest days, etc.

Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That number has the potential to grow to around 960-ish for the season. So in essence, JV has been directly responsible for the outcome of more at bats than any position player in the major leagues.

More of the media wants you to believe that since the pitchers have the Cy Young award, given annually to the league's best pitcher, the MVP award should go to a positional player.

Quite frankly, this is horseshit (channeling my inner Leyland). The Cy Young is for the best pitcher. The Silver Slugger is for the best hitter. The Gold Glove is for the best fielder. The MVP is for hands down, the most VALUABLE player, regardless of position. Don't let the media fool you, in particular, the Yankee/Red Sox homers over at the mothership (ESPN).

As I emphasized above, the MVP should go to the most VALUABLE player. Not the player who's on the best team. Not the best hitter. Not the best fielder. The most valuable PLAYER.

Value is determined in any number of ways. I choose to look at WAR as the best indicator. As we have established, Justin Verlander has the best WAR.

This is my argument people. Justin Verlander should win the AL Cy Young, as well as the AL MVP. He is the BEST Pitcher, as well as the Most VALUABLE Player.

Peace, Love, and Tigers Baseball

Is the B1G in for trouble when bowl games come around?

Last season, eight out of 11 Big Ten teams (nine out of 12 if you count Nebraska) went to a bowl game. The conference looked to build on last season after going 4-3 in bowl games, including 2-0 in BCS games.

After starting 2-0 with Iowa defeating Missouri in the Insight Bowl and Illinois beating Baylor in the Texas Bowl, it appeared that the conference was headed in the right direction.

Then came New Year's Day.

Northwestern, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all lost their respective bowl games, with the middle three all getting embarrassed by opponents from the SEC (and a certain blogger getting a lot of heat from a relative residing in SEC country). When all was said and done, the Big Ten had a final bowl record of 2-5, as Ohio State's win over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl was vacated.

When this season came around with Nebraska as a new member, the Big Ten was looking to move past the clusterbleep of last bowl season. This past weekend brought us four teams playing away from home against teams that were bowl eligible last season. Wisconsin was really the only team from the conference to pass their "road test" by beating Northern Illinois 49-7 at Soldier Field.

Aside from that, the best word that describes the performance of Big Ten teams playing on the road this weekend is "pathetic."

Northwestern suffered an inexcusable 21-14 loss at Army, Michigan State lost 31-13 to a Notre Dame team that still has a problem with turnovers, and Ohio State fell flat on their faces in a 24-6 loss to Miami in the so-called "Probation Bowl." In fact, the Buckeyes performance may have been the worst out of all the losses as both Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller combined to complete only four passes for 35 yards.

In conclusion, while the Big Ten has taken plenty of heat for falling flat in bowl games and in big non-conference games in the last five years, fans probably shouldn't raise their expectations after this past Saturday (I know I'm probably preaching to the choir when I say that). It still frustrates me that the conference whose football I've grown up watching on TV since I was a kid can't step up in big games on a consistent basis. Then again, things could be worse this season as the conference could cannibalize itself a la the ACC.

Hello to All

Hi Everyone-

Let me introduce myself.

My name is Brian Sakowski, and I'm a 21 year old senior at Central Michigan University. I'm a double major (History/Political Science) and double minor (Leadership/Athletic Coaching) within the Secondary Education program. My goal right now is to get a job teaching high school history while coaching the football and baseball teams.

I met Frank (your OP) at good ole' Monroe CC back in early 2010, when both of us where aspiring journalism/broadcasting students. Obviously our academic careers have gone down rather different roads.

I saw that Frank started this blog to further his career in Sports Journalism, and sent him a text wondering if he could use a contributor. He most graciously obliged, hence my presence here at It's What I Do.

Mainly my contributions will concern baseball, in particularly, the Detroit Tigers. I hope to also contribute to the college football section of the blog from a Wolverine perspective, as the Tigers and Michigan Football are indeed my obsessions and areas of expertise.

If you have any questions for me, feel free to email me at sakow1ba@cmich.edu.

Thanks for reading, look forward to hearing from all of you.

-Brian

Upsets Could be Brewing This Weekend

Let's get this party started.

Week 3 of the College Football season brings us plenty of potential upsets. 12 out of the top 25 teams play games away from home this weekend. Winning on the road is never easy, so could we see 12 ranked teams  lose this weekend?

Let's look at the matchups:

Thursday

#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (8 PM, ESPN)

What to watch: Mississippi State is reeling after losing at Auburn on a goal line stand. Now the Bulldogs return home to face LSU. The key matchup is the Bulldogs' rushing attack of Vick Ballard and Chris Relf against the Tigers' stingy run defense. LSU is no stranger to having to stop a team that loves to run the football; just ask Oregon after the Tigers held LaMichael James to 54 yards rushing in Week 1.

Friday

#4 Boise State at Toledo (8 PM, ESPN)

What to watch: Toledo came oh-so-close to pulling off a huge upset at Ohio State last Saturday before falling 27-22 to the Buckeyes. Now the Rockets will play host to Boise State. The Broncos opened the year beating Georgia 35-21 at the Georgia Dome, but that win isn't looking very impressive at this point. The last time the Broncos played in a TRUE ROAD GAME (neutral site games don't count as road games), they lost at Nevada. The Glass Bowl has been a death trap for ranked teams in the past. Will the Broncos be next to go down?

Saturday

#21 Auburn at Clemson (Noon, ABC)

What to watch: Auburn has to be the luckiest team in America. The Tigers came from behind to beat Utah State in Week 1, and stopped Mississippi State at the goal line last week. Now they must go on the road to face a Clemson team that had them on the ropes last season at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

#18 West Virginia at Maryland (Noon, ESPNU)

What to watch: Despite starting 2-0 under new head coach Dana Holgerson, West Virginia has been very dependent on quarterback Geno Smith, mostly to run the ball. The Mountaineers have also started slow in both games. Maryland has had a week to prepare for Holgerson's high octane passing offense, and new head coach Randy Edsall is familiar with the Mountaineers, as he beat them when he was at UConn last season.

#7 Wisconsin at Northern Illinois (at Soldier Field, 3:30 PM)

What to watch: Wisky has looked impressive with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Now the Badgers must face a Husky team coached by their former defensive coordinator Dave Doeren.

#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame (3:30 PM, NBC)

What to watch: What is wrong with Notre Dame (besides Brian Kelly getting mad)? In two games, the Irish have turned the ball over 10 times combined in losses to South Florida and Michigan, and their defense got torched for 338 passing yards by Denard Robinson. Now they must face Michigan State; a team that has beaten them nine times in the last 12 years.

#23 Texas at UCLA (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN)

What to watch: Like Michigan State to Notre Dame, UCLA has been a thorn in the side to Texas. The Bruins have outscored the Longhorns 149-46 in the last 3 meetings. The Longhorns are hoping that new starting quarterback Case McCoy (Colt McCoy's little brother) can give their offense a spark.

#22 Arizona State at Illinois (7 PM, Big Ten Network)

What to watch: Both teams could be two of the most improved in the country. Arizona State has been considered a sleeper in the Pac-12, while Illinois has quietly started 2-0 and looked impressive. The Sun Devils are fresh off an upset win over Missouri last Friday. While the Illini don't look as daunting, it's never easy to win in Champaign. This could end up being a quarterback dual between ASU's Brock Osweiler and Illinois's Nathan Scheelhaase.

#17 Ohio State at Miami (7:30 PM, ESPN)

What to watch: This one should be called the "NCAA Probation Bowl" as both teams have been in hot water with the NCAA within the last 12 months. The Buckeyes escaped with a 27-22 win over Toledo last week, but the real problem was the fact that they struggled to run the ball, as they wheezed to 112 rushing yards on 34 attempts. Miami gets several players back from suspension, including quarterback Jacory Harris and defensive tackle Marcus Fortson, and the Hurricanes are looking for revenge.

#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State (8 PM, ABC)

What to watch: A matchup between two top-5 teams. Last year, the Sooners stomped the Seminoles in Norman  47-17. The Sooners have not faired well away from home when ranked in the top 5. Coach Bob Stoops is trying to regain his "Big Game Bob" reputation, and a win over the Seminoles on their home turf could do just that. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are looking for their first win over the Sooners since 1964, and they have not won against a top 5 opponent since defeating then #2 Boston College 27-17 in 2007.

#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa (10 PM)

What to watch: Oklahoma State leads the country in total offense after two games, and they look to continue lighting it up against a Tulsa team they beat 65-28. The Golden Hurricane will be without all-purpose threat Damaris Johnson, who is suspended. Look for a big night from Cowboy quarterback Brandon Weeden and receiver Justin Blackmon.

#6 Stanford at Arizona (10:45 PM, ESPN)

What to watch: This is shaping up to be a quarterback dual between Stanford's Andrew Luck and Arizona's Nick Foles. But the real deciding factor could be the ground game, as Arizona has struggled to run the football this season, only averaging 58 yards per game. Stanford has been averaging 173 yards on the ground. Another question for the Wildcats is will receiver Juron Criner return after having his appendix removed on September 5.

Grab some popcorn, peeps. It's gonna be a great Week 3.

Hello to all

Greetings to those of you reading this. I have taken my sports blogging here. Mostly I will talk about college football, but I'll cover other topics in the sports world.

Check back for more later