*note: Now that the Minor League seasons are complete for the Tiger's teams, I will take into account what the players did this past season (2011) when ranking them.
1) Jacob Turner, RHP, 20 years old.
By now, everyone should have heard of this kid. He has had 3 starts in Detroit, with mixed (mostly bad) results. These major league experiences have done nothing to negate his potential or ceiling, however.
Turner, a Right-Handed Starting Pitcher, was drafted 9th overall by the Tigers in 2009 out of high school in Missouri. After a very successful season in 2010 at both the A and high-A levels of the minor leagues, Turner began this season at AA Erie.
He was very successful, despite what his win totals might say (don't pay attention to wins, they are a useless stat when determining pitcher value). He posted a 3.48 ERA in 113 2/3 IP spanning 17 starts at AA. He had a solid WHIP of 1.18, while posting nearly 1 strikeout per inning. He spent the final 2 months of the season between Detroit and AAA Toledo, with mixed results due to advanced competition and limited innings.
Turner is somewhat of a mix between Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. He is like Porcello in the sense that he loves to throw a 2-seam fastball that has sink at around 90-91 MPH, which produces a lot of ground balls when it is effective. He is more like Scherzer is the sense that he can gas up his fastball to the mid-90's while still maintaining some movement, to go along with a plus curveball and an average change up that has the potential to develop into a 3rd plus pitch.
ETA: Turner, in my opinion, will make the Tiger's rotation out of Spring Training in 2012, and have a very Porcello-like rookie season. 12-15 wins with a mid to high 3 ERA is a reasonable expectation, and remember, he is not yet 21 years old.
Prospect Ceiling: Very High. Potential front of the rotation starter down the road.
2) Nick Castellanos, 3B, 19 years old.
Castellanos, the Tiger's supplemental draft pick in the 2010 Draft, was an outstanding high school shortstop in the Miami area. Castellanos would have easily been a top 10-15 pick had it not been for his hard commitment to the University of Miami, as well as expected high salary demands. The Tigers took a chance on him, signed him, and then assigned him to A-level West Michigan for the 2011 season.
Castellanos started slowly, hitting under .200 in April, but rebounded to hit .312 on the season, with team highs in batting average, doubles (36), RBI (76), and OPS (.803). He combines a very quick, short stroke with excellent lower body drive and extremely fast hands to create a very well-balanced, strong swing; resulting in his plus extra base power, to go along with marginal home run power (7 total). He played shortstop in high school, but at 6'4", 200lbs and still filling out, he is much better suited to play 3rd base. He has great range from 3rd, along with a plus arm, but still learning the position lead to 23 errors. I expect him to continue to grow into the position, and be an above-average defender at 3rd in the majors. As for the bat, he needs to cut down on the strikeouts (130), but that's a problem very few prospects DON'T run into. He walks at a decent rate, and his batting average speaks to his raw ability to hit. He displayed plus extra-base power, and I expect him to maintain that along with additional home run power.
ETA: Castellanos will almost assuredly be assigned to High-A Lakeland out of Spring Training, with a possible mid-season promotion to Double-A Erie in 2012. Depending on how he performs, in particular with the bat, he should be ready for the majors by mid-2013, and ready to take over 3rd base full time by 2014.
Prospect Ceiling: Very High. I think he projects to be a perennial .300/15-20/80-100 producer in the majors, with an above-average glove at 3rd base, with the potential to move to a corner outfield spot if he keeps growing.
3) Drew Smyly, LHP, 22 years old.
Smyly was Detroit's 2nd round pick in 2011, from the University of Arkansas. A lefty, he is more of a control-style pitcher than a guy who will blow you away, but he uses his talents very effectively. Smyly was assigned to High-A Lakeland, where he performed very well, going 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA over 80 innings. A solid WHIP of 1.15 partnered with an excellent K:BB ration of nearly 4:1 to earn Smyly a promotion to Double A-Erie around mid-season. While at Erie, Smyly absolutely broke out, going 4-3 with a minuscule 1.18 ERA, to go again with a nearly 4:1 K:BB ration, both absolutely outstanding numbers.
With Smyly, we see an older prospect (22) than someone like Turner (20), but also a more polished prospect, particularly due to the fact that Smyly pitched at a big-time college baseball program. Smyly is more finesse than power, but as the numbers show, he uses his skills very effectively.
ETA: Smyly will probably start 2012 back in Double A Erie, but if he repeats the success he had there, he will almost assuredly be promoted to Triple A at the very least. I don't think it's out of the question to see him in Detroit as a spot-starter (like Turner this year) or as a long-relief man (like Wilk and Furbush were this season).
Prospect Ceiling: High. Smyly has a much lower ceiling than Turner, who projects to be a front of the rotation "ace" type starter. Smyly is more a swingman, with the potential to be (at the very highest) a #3 starter in a major league rotation, or perhaps an effective long-relief lefty in a bullpen somewhere. Either way, he will help the Tigers in some capacity.
4) Andy Oliver, LHP, 25 years old.
Many of you will know this name. Oliver, who has made 8 starts in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, was a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. Extremely raw, with excellent pure stuff, Oliver needs to learn how to "pitch" rather than "throw." Ever heard Jim Price refer to "the art of pitching with a power arm" when referring to Verlander? Well, Oliver has the power arm, he just hasn't the slightest idea about the art of pitching.
Oliver combines a mid-90's fastball that occasionally tops out at 97-98 with a nasty slider and developing change up to make him a very proficient strikeout pitcher. His issue is that he walks nearly as many as he strikes out, and thusly ends up with ridiculously high pitch counts. He reminds me a lot of Daniel Schlereth, in the sense that there are moments where he will throw a pitch that makes me say "wow, no human should be able to make a ball do that", and then promptly walks the next guy on 4 fastballs 3 feet out of the zone. Once Oliver learns the elusive art of pitching to combine with his power arm, he ceiling is tremendously high.
Oliver spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he had spurts of brilliance and spurts of pure maddening frustration, ending in a line of 8-12 with a 4.70 ERA over 147 innings. He had 143 strikeouts, which is nearly one per inning (duh), but also walked 80, which is horrendously high. Due to the elevated walks, his WHIP is notoriously high, and he gave up a lot of earned runs.
ETA: More or less, any time now. We've seen him already, and we're almost sure to see him again, the question is simply how effective will he be? I expect to see a Triple-A assignment in 2012, with his call-up to Detroit being determined by a combination of need of the big club with Oliver's effectiveness. Either way, I expect we will see him in some capacity in 2012 in Detroit.
Prospect Ceiling: High. If Oliver ever figures it out and is able to command his pitches effectively, he could be the left handed "2" to Justin Verlander's "A". His stuff is simply that good. If he doesn't figure it out, obviously the Tiger's don't need any more live arm lefties that can't throw strikes consistently (re: Schlereth, Daniel and Purcey, David). I could, however, see him as a very effective late innings reliever. A plus fastball and plus slider from the left side (Billy Wagner anyone?) could make Oliver very useful in the bullpen, again, with the caveat that he learns to throw strikes.
5) Casey Crosby, LHP, 23 years old.
Crosby is incredibly similar to Andy Oliver, except with maybe even better pure "stuff." Crosby, unlike Oliver, has dealt with a history of arm issues, but this season, except for a minor sore arm hiccup, he was essentially healthy all season. He spent the whole year a Double A Erie, going 9-7 with a 4.10 ERA over 132 innings. He struck out 121, walked 77, and had an elevated WHIP of over 1.60. See any similarities?
Crosby combines an incredibly live arm (has touched 99) with a plus curveball and a Jeremy Bonderman change up (meaning he's been "working on it" for years, but we never see it). His issue, like Oliver's, is walks. He probably has more upside than Oliver, in the sense that while Oliver is not at all polished AND wild, Crosby is simply wild. When he throws strikes, he dominates. That simple. When he is wild, he gets hit. Seems pretty simple right?
The Tigers are still very high on Crosby, and rightfully so. I made the potential Billy Wagner comparison with Oliver, but I feel like Crosby is closer to Wagner than Oliver is. Crosby, due to durability concerns, is much better suited for the bullpen in my opinion, while Oliver has the durability to be a started. Oliver also has an at least average 3rd pitch, essential to a major league started repertoire, while Crosby only has (albeit, dominant) 2. Crosby could be the back end of the bullpen, fire throwing lefty that all teams covet, again, IF he can learn to throw strikes with consistency.
ETA: Crosby will for sure be sent to Double A Erie again in 2012, and if he pitches well in the 1st half, stays healthy, and cuts down on his walks, he could see a promotion to Triple A. I don't expect to see him with the Tigers outside of a late-season bullpen tryout (September call up maybe) perhaps. Should he stay healthy through 2012 and improve upon his walks and tendency to leave the ball elevated, he could easily crack the Tiger's bullpen in 2013.
Prospect Ceiling: High. Crosby has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, similar to Oliver. However, I project him to be a late-innings bullpen pitcher, due to his durability concerns and lack of a 3rd pitch. Overall, if he learns to throw strikes, he could be what we all expected Daniel Schlereth to be.
6-10 will follow in a separate post.
Peace, Love, and Tiger's Baseball
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